Transcript: Panel Discussion on the 2024 US Presidential Election, Episode II

By The Savvy Street Show

November 5, 2024

Date of recording: November 1, 2024, The Savvy Street Show

Host: Vinay Kolhatkar. Guests: Ruth Papazian, David Harriman, Ed Mazlish, Roger Bissell.

For those who prefer to watch the video, it is here.

Editor’s Note: The Savvy Street Show’s AI-generated transcripts are edited for removal of repetitions and pause terms, and for grammar and clarity. Explanatory references are added in parentheses. Material edits are advised to the reader as edits [in square brackets].

Summary

In this episode of Savvy Street, the panel discusses the current political landscape as the election approaches. They analyze Trump’s recent campaign strategies, contrasting them with Harris’s approach, and delve into the influence of media on public perception. The conversation also explores voter demographics, particularly focusing on young men and women, and the impact of the abortion debate on electoral choices. Predictions for the upcoming election are made, with a consensus leaning towards a landslide Trump victory. The discussion highlights the shifting dynamics within the Muslim community and their potential impact on the election. The panelists critique the Democratic Party’s approach to war and foreign policy, emphasizing Trump’s potential to negotiate peace. They also explore strategies for Trump’s first 100 days in office, including cabinet picks and government reform, advocating for a significant reduction in bureaucracy and a focus on loyalty in appointments.

Takeaways

Trump’s recent campaign strategies have been effective in engaging voters.
The contrast between Trump and Harris is becoming increasingly clear.
Media portrayal of candidates significantly influences public perception.
Voter demographics are shifting, particularly among young men and women.
Abortion remains a pivotal issue in the election.
Trump’s ability to connect with the average person is a key strength.
Harris’s campaign struggles to resonate with voters.
Predictions suggest a strong possibility of a Trump victory in the upcoming election.
The political landscape is marked by polarization and shifting voter sentiments.
Concerns about potential unrest following the election results are prevalent.
Harris is losing momentum in the election race.
Trump has a strong chance of winning key battleground states.
The Arab American community’s views are shifting towards Trump. They prefer peace in the Middle East.
The Democratic Party is pro-war.
Trump’s first 100 days should focus on energy independence.
Cabinet picks should reflect loyalty to Trump’s agenda.
R.F.K. Jr. is a strong candidate for Health and Human Services.
Government reform is essential for effective governance.
The importance of picking the right advisors is emphasized.
A significant reduction in government bureaucracy would be beneficial.

Sound Bites

“Trump is firing on all jets in the homestretch.”
“It’s a blowout as far as I’m concerned.”
“I think it’s going to be a landslide.”
“Trump’s going to take all the red states.”
“I think the GOP is going to flip the Senate.”
“I fear for Trump and Vance and their families.”
“Harris is deflating like a half-baked souffle.”
“The Democrats are the party of war.”
“He [Trump] can stop the Ukraine war.”
“He [Trump] should pardon every January 6th defendant.”
“R.F.K. Jr. for Health and Human Services.”
“He needs to pick the right people this time.”

Vinay Kolhatkar

Hello and welcome back to Savvy Street. We are into episode two of our political podcast, four days to go, three and a half before you hit the poll booths. Maybe you’ll get the result Tuesday night or maybe three weeks later, as some have suggested.

Today we have four distinguished guests. I’ll start with Ed Mazlish. He has been a student of political campaigns since the Reagan-Carter election in 1980. He has run for political office in New Jersey and was a delegate for Ted Cruz’s presidential campaign in 2016. He currently co-hosts the podcast called The Conservatarian Exchange on The Liberty Block, which is available on most podcast platforms. Welcome to the show, Ed.

Ed Mazlish

Thank you.

Vinay Kolhatkar

Then we have Ruth Papazian, an award-winning science and medical writer. Ruth knew she needed a career switch when it became verboten to cover Hillary Clinton’s obvious health issues in 2016. She’s a lifelong political junkie, and she transferred her skills to political consulting, working with moderate and conservative Democrats running to unseat progressive incumbents. Welcome to the show, Ruth.

Ruth Papazian

Thank you.

Vinay Kolhatkar

David Harriman has worked as a physicist and as a philosopher. He is the author of The Logical Leap, a book that explains the scientific discovery process. He is an expert on the philosophy of Ayn Rand, who was an advocate of individual rights and a passionate opponent of totalitarian government. Welcome back to the show, David.

David Harriman

Thank you for inviting me.

Vinay Kolhatkar

Lastly, we have musician and writer Roger Bissell. He has been a political libertarian since the late 1960s. He founded a local taxpayers’ group, the Nashville Tax Alternatives Committee, in 1979, and he unsuccessfully ran for the U.S. House of Representatives in 1976 and the Metro Nashville School Board in 1983. Welcome back to the show, Roger.

Roger Bissell

Thanks very much, Vinay. My taxpayers group died a well-deserved death about 40 years ago, but I haven’t quite assumed room temperature, yet.

Vinay Kolhatkar

We’ll have fun, anyway. Okay, I’m going to jump on to Ed first. It looks like maybe the Trump team was eavesdropping on our recommendations [of] two weeks ago [that he should do friendly podcast interviews and rallies, but not bother with hostile media]. He ended up doing a three-hour friendly [podcast] with Joe Rogan and then did many more rallies. Did anything else happen in the last fortnight that excited or pleased or disappointed you?

Ed Mazlish

I think it’s been a good two weeks for the good guys. I think there have been a lot of good things. I think Trump going on Rogan was good. [As was] I think his reaction earlier this week to the statement from Biden that Trump supporters were garbage—Trump within hours got himself a garbage truck and held a press conference as a garbage man. He’s a master troller but, more importantly, he’s able to connect with the common person and the average person, just like [in] the McDonald’s stunt, going to McDonald’s and serving fries and sitting in the drive-through. Once again, Kamala talks like she can connect with the common people, but she can’t. On the flip side, Kamala ignored the advice that [it’s] better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to open your mouth and remove all doubt. She went on Bret Baier, and I think that was the beginning of the end for her. She went on Anderson Cooper; that was [such] a disaster that even the people at CNN were saying she lost a one-person debate [laughter]. She has had a terrible two weeks. Trump has had a great two weeks. I feel pretty good for the good guys.

Vinay Kolhatkar

Okay, Ruth, what about you?

Ruth Papazian

Trump is firing on all jets in the homestretch of the campaign.

I think Trump is firing on all jets in the homestretch of the campaign. Working the French fry station at McDonald’s was one of the greatest political stunts ever. It made people smile, made Trump more likeable, and reinforced his blue-collar billionaire brand. It also went viral on social media platforms all over, and it spawned new memes that also went viral and got tons of earned media on broadcast and cable. Then, of course, [there was] the mega-MAGA rally at Madison Square Garden, which was filled to capacity. I think there were 20,000 people inside the arena, with another 75,000 outside. Like Trump’s Bronx rally—which I was at, by the way—the crowd was bipartisan and racially diverse. It was made up mostly of what hoity-toity Manhattanites derisively refer to as “the bridge-and-tunnel crowd,” which would mean the outer borough residents of New York, Long Islanders, and people from New Jersey. Having labeled the [MSG] rally a gathering of Nazis, of course, Democrats pounced when a comedian made a rude joke about Puerto Rico; but Biden then stepped on the attack line by calling Trump supporters “garbage” as Harris was giving her closing argument speech. So Trump made hay of the insult. He rolled up to his next rally in a garbage truck and wore the sanitation workers’ orange safety vest while giving a speech. Nobody remembers Harris’s speech, but everybody knows about her deplorables moment.

Vinay Kolhatkar

All right. David?

David Harriman

It’s a blowout, as far as I’m concerned.

Yes. I think it’s been a great two weeks for Trump. I think the contrast between him and Harris became even more obvious. Trump fills up Madison Square Garden. The crowd is really enthusiastic for him. Like Ruth said, over 20,000 people. At roughly the same time, Harris has an event with Beyonce—headliner, right? I think Trump’s event at Madison Square Garden got 20 million views on the internet; she got 500,000. I mean, it’s a blowout. I really don’t see how people can look at those kinds of numbers and think that Harris is ahead in this campaign. Trump can sell out any rally he wants. If she [Harris] were in Madison Square Garden, she could fill up the first row with Hollywood celebrities. She could fill up the second row with billionaire CEOs that are on the government payroll, basically. She could fill up the third row with people that are in favor of sex-change operations or whatever. And that would be it. There wouldn’t be anybody else in the crowd [laughter]. So, it’s a blowout, as far as I’m concerned.

Ruth Papazian

Can I jump in about the Beyonce thing? This was back-to-back bait and switch things involving Beyonce. People expected to hear her sing, and she didn’t sing. So, I think a lot of people left those two rallies pissed off, and they might not vote for Kamala now.

Vinay Kolhatkar

That’s great. I mean, you don’t invite Taylor Swift or Beyonce and then not have them sing even one number.

Ruth Papazian

And reportedly, Beyonce was paid 10 million dollars to appear. So, for that kind of coin, I would expect her to warble a little bit, you know.

Vinay Kolhatkar

Sure. Roger, anything to add?

Roger Bissell

Oh, that 10 million bucks? That’s a drop in the bucket. You know how much money they have in their war chest. It’s obscene.

Trump, he’s amazing in being able to dominate the news, over and over, and he has this weird, amazing skill of being able to combine trolling, as Ed aptly described it, with retail politics.

They paint him as some kind of deranged would-be dictator who hates women and minorities and Americans in general. I think that people are catching on.

Let’s see, disappointed or delighted? Well, I was delighted by that, obviously. I was not disappointed, but I was more like outraged by how the media and the Democrats just continually distort and take Donald Trump’s comments out of context. They paint him as some kind of deranged would-be dictator who hates women and minorities and Americans in general. I think that people are catching on. I mean, this stuff just sounds like a desperation ploy. Where did that come from? This is supposed to be a campaign of joy, and all of a sudden they sound like there’s a wolf who’s going to eat their youngest child or something. Another thing that various Democrats are doing—and this is a good example of “with friends like these, who needs enemies?”—is that they are repeatedly shooting Harris in the foot by things like Biden calling Trump supporters “garbage,” Mark Cuban saying Trump doesn’t have any strong and intelligent women around him, and Bill Clinton claiming that even though the economy was better under Trump, that’s not a good reason to vote for him. Wait a minute! Paging James Carville! “It’s the economy, stupid.”

One thing that I was disappointed [about] on both sides: Trump turned down a second debate, but maybe he thought, well, I’m ahead or I’m doing well, I’ve got momentum, and I don’t need any more of their abuse. (I saw Hugh Hewitt walk off a debate just recently.) Harris turned down the Joe Rogan podcast because she almost certainly felt that she was unable to and just didn’t want to do a three-hour gab session with him; but both Trump and Vance did, and that’s got to help both of them.

Vinay Kolhatkar

Ed…

Ed Mazlish

The Rogan podcast in particular shows that Trump is not the fascist that they’re trying to make him out to be.

If I could just add to that, I think that the Rogan podcast in particular shows that Trump is not the fascist that they’re trying to make him out to be. You can disagree with him. You can think that he’s wrong about things. The guy is clearly not a fascist. I think the last I looked, there were like 35 million views of the Rogan podcast, and that was a couple of days ago. I don’t know how many there are today, but people are watching it. People are listening to it and they’re hearing Trump in his own voice. They’re hearing him answering questions unfiltered, unrehearsed, unscripted, and he’s fine. He acts like a normal person. He acts like somebody that you’d love to have lunch with and maybe debate politics with him if you wanted to. And not even just politics. The guy goes to the MMA, mixed martial arts; he’s a normal guy. I think that they get to see Trump, hear Trump in his own words, whether it’s dishing out French fries or driving the garbage truck or talking on Joe Rogan, I think it’s obvious to everybody paying attention that he’s not what they’re accusing him of.

Ruth Papazian

I just want to jump on a couple of things Roger said. From Trump’s point of view, there were two presidential debates. One of them just happened to be with Biden, and the other one happened to be with Harris, but he’s done his two debates. So, I can see from his point of view why he didn’t want to do another one. As far as Rogan goes, I don’t think Harris outright refused to do the interview, but her preconditions were so arrogant, it was unbelievable. The guy has a three-hour show to fill, two to three hours. She only wanted to do one hour, and she wanted him to leave his Austin studios and travel to her very feet to do this interview. Now, reportedly, many people have said that, in her presence, you are not allowed to look at her in her eyes. You’re supposed to avert your gaze as though she’s the burning bush or something. The woman is very arrogant. I agree with Ed. In all these different situations, Trump comes off like the Everyman. He really does love McDonald’s. He eats McDonald’s [food]. Harris—this was just another example of being so out of touch and so arrogant.

Vinay Kolhatkar

Other media [accused] Trump [of calling Democrats] “garbage,” as well. [In fact] he had said, we bring in garbage, like the Venezuelan gangs are garbage, then he called the supporters around Harris garbage. He never called all Americans garbage. So, they twist his words all the time. I was just thinking of something Ed said here about the mixed martial arts. Those kinds of events, worldwide wrestling, mixed martial arts—sometimes have a preponderance of young men, especially [the] UFC. There seems to be a very strong new trend, at least among young men, jumping from 29% to 47% now, leaning for Trump. A lot of young women [are] trending towards Harris. Perhaps there are some trends among blacks not voting for Harris the same as they did for Biden. The big unknown is the Latino voters because they often don’t respond to pollsters. They just hang up. Are there any major trends, Ruth, that affect your forecast?

Ruth Papazian

The only pitch that Harris is making to young women is unrestricted abortion, but it’s a powerful pitch because even women who are religious or otherwise against abortion subconsciously want to have the option, just in case. Single women, in particular, fear having their career, lifestyle, financial future adversely impacted by an unwanted and unplanned pregnancy. But having said that, inflation hits single women harder than men because the jobs they tend to gravitate to[ward] pay less, and a larger percentage of their salaries go to rent, utilities, groceries, and other basics. It doesn’t matter to them that it’s the policies of the Biden-Harris administration that caused this rampant inflation. Again, there’s this fear of something happening, where they lose their jobs, what will they do, et cetera. Remember, they’re single, they don’t have another income. So, despite the bad policies, despite the fact that Biden and Harris were responsible for the inflation that’s making it hard for them to stay afloat, they will still vote Democrat because they like big government, and they like having the safety net programs.

Nothing that Harris is peddling to young men [is] of interest to them, including minority young men. Young men are also focused on their finances, but they are forward-looking. They don’t have this what-if mentality. They don’t have this victimhood mentality. They want good jobs. They want to be able to afford their own apartments and to save up for a home. They want to be able to marry and start a family. So, the one thing that I think might be lurking in their subconscious, however, would be all these foreign wars that are breaking out all over the place because you get drafted or you get sent to war, your future can go up in smoke if you suffer a fatal or life-altering injury. That, of course, just reinforces their wish to vote for Trump.

Vinay Kolhatkar

David, do you see any cohort-like trends that you attribute to Latinos or young men or young women?

David Harriman

Yes. I think there’s a remnant left of masculinity that leads young men [to] the Trump side. I agree a lot with what Ruth said that I thought was very insightful, that young men are more forward-looking. Maybe they see all the dangers of the policies of the Democrats, other than having the illusion of that safety net, which is an illusion. It’s not a safety net. It’s going to drive the whole country into bankruptcy, and the women aren’t going to have anything either.

I think the only issue that could drive women in the direction of the Democrats is the abortion issue, and if you notice, Harris has been playing that one tune because she knows she loses on every other issue. If you look at her speech at the Beyonce event, what was it about? It was about abortion. That was almost the only thing she talked about. That’s her play. The only other play she has is accusing Trump of being Hitler. They didn’t get him in jail, he wasn’t murdered, and the only thing they have left is “Hitler.” That’s the most pathetic campaign in history.

Vinay Kolhatkar

Yes, indeed. Roger, is it wokeism that is emasculating young men, and they’re realizing it, or do see any other trend?

Roger Bissell

I don’t know. I do want to comment on Ruth’s point because it is a point I wanted to make also. The abortion issue does cut across gender lines, [but] there’s a broader issue. David was getting close to it there. A lot of women react viscerally to Trump, not like he’s a good guy who will protect them, but he’s kind of scary. [For them,] he symbolizes the abusiveness of toxic males. The whole thing about Liz Cheney, [Trump] saying she’s a war hawk and how would she feel if it wasn’t young men and women being sent to war, but her, and she had nine guns pointed at her, [that supposedly led some] to think Trump wants to shoot Liz Cheney in the face, he hates women, he wants to…

Ed Mazlish

Can we vote on that, Roger?

Roger Bissell

Sure. Send in your ballots, and I’ll come by in a van and pick them up. (That’s a joke about ballot harvesting.)

There’re a lot of politicians who are ignoring the facts that have come out since Dodd. They’re wanting everybody to believe that abortion has declined, and they have these scary anecdotal stories about young women in this city or that city, but abortion has increased since Dodd, and the reason is mainly due to loosening [of] some of the pharmaceutical regulations about the abortion pill. So, there are more abortions, and this isn’t being brought out because I guess they don’t want it to, but you can check it for yourself by googling it.

My main point—I’m going to make a vast overgeneralization [about] what splits the young people, the men and the women. I think it’s about 75% true, so I’m going to run with it. There’s a split between left and right ideology that’s gotten really polarized. There’s not only a traditional basis, but also a biological basis. Here’s the overgeneralization: men tend to have a more protective and responsible, forward-looking role, so they’re more likely to want a free market with low taxes, as well as a secure border, effective criminal justice, taking care of your financial responsibilities and being financially independent; while women tend to have a more nurturing role, they’re more likely to favor a controlled market with higher taxes, an open border, lenient criminal justice, forgiveness of indebtedness and social welfare safety net programs. It’s really tempting to boil it down to—women are collectivists and statist-welfarists and they’re woke; and men are individualist and voluntary oriented and colorblind, merit-based. Obviously, I don’t think all men are that way and all women are that way, but it sort of cuts like that, partly because of incentives built in because of laws that discourage young fathers from staying in the household and encourage young women to have children that they really can’t support because Uncle Sugar is going to give them money. So, there is a gender divide here.

Beyond that, I think there’s a substantial “silent vote.” I think you were wondering: is there a silent vote [“Silent Majority” as popularized by Richard Nixon]? Some people say maybe there’s a silent Harris vote. I don’t think so. I think there’s still a lot of people, because of all the cancel culture that we’ve had in the last 10 years, that are unwilling to be public about their politics because they fear that pollsters are corrupt and are going to turn their names over to operatives or activists who are going to target them for persecution. Harris’s campaign has tried to encourage women to lie to their husbands and men to lie to their buddies about voting for Harris. But unless you go along with this toxic male notion that right-wing men are domineering patriarchs and bullies, it just sounds like more paranoid desperation tactics. I think that it’s despicable when the leftists, the Democrats, are trying to drive a wedge between marital relationships and male buddy relationships. Because of all of that, I think that the remaining undecided voters, which is a dwindling pool, are going to break for Trump, and it’s going to happen in the last two or three days.

David Harriman

Can I say one more thing? In ignoring the men and women issue, let me transition to young people, the 18-to-29 group.

Vinay Kolhatkar

I wish we could transition to youth again. I don’t want to transition to female.

David Harriman

In general, though, that age group goes to Harris. I think one of the reasons is the brainwashing that they receive in schools. I recently saw a chart of professors, Democrats versus Republicans. About 94% of professors are Democrats, 6% are Republicans. They’re getting brainwashed in the schools.

Vinay Kolhatkar

Okay, I’m going to change the order slightly. Ed, as you give us your view of the cohort trends, can you jump into your overall prediction, as well? Just flow with that.

Ed Mazlish

As far as the trends and what everybody else has said, in our in our previous edition of this podcast, I pointed out that the Republicans and Trump have a perfect built-in rejoinder to the abortion issue, and that is Fauci and all the forced shots, the forced masking. I know why they won’t make that argument. Trump does not want to admit that Operation Warp Speed is any bit of a problem. But if only they were willing to make that argument, Harris would have nothing to say. The abortion argument would go away because I don’t think that they can make the claim that they’re for bodily integrity and sovereignty. It’s a real shame that Trump and the Republicans are not willing to make that argument.

Masculine men and feminine women are supporting Trump, masculine women and feminine men are supporting Harris.

As far as masculinity and femininity, I think that what we’re really seeing is that masculine men and feminine women are supporting Trump, masculine women and feminine men are supporting Harris [much laughter]. There are more normies than not normies, and that’s just the bottom line, and I think that’s why we have such a big swing towards Trump. The normies are no longer cowed, and they’re no longer intimidated, and they feel like it’s safe to be normie and to say, yes, I’m going to vote for Trump because he represents us. That’s what I think is going on.

As far as predictions, which is what I think you wanted me to shift into, I think it’s going to be a landslide. I don’t know that it’s going to be a Reagan-Nixon kind of landslide, but I think that when I did a conservative map earlier this week, I came out with 348 electoral votes for Trump. I think that he’s going to win all of the border states on the North and on the South, except for Washington state. He’s not going to win Washington, D.C., either. If anything, I think it’s going to be higher, but who knows?

I came out with 348 electoral votes for Trump.

I think that the Democrats do have cheating built in. I think that the ballot harvesting is real, and it’s being combined with illegal immigration to harvest ballots that are obtained through the motor voter law by illegals when they get driver’s licenses and IDs. I think that the ballot harvesters have a reservoir of registered voters that they know are not supposed to be registered and will never show up at the polls, so they know they can harvest those ballots and vote them illegally, but really, it’s illegal, and they’ll never be caught. So, I have that caveat out there.

It could be a stolen election. Bolsonaro [in Brazil] had a stolen election and left power. The Muslim Brotherhood stole an election in Egypt about 13 years ago, and tens of millions of people took to the streets until they left. Who knows what the American people are going to do if that happens? But I think that Trump is way ahead. I think David was exactly right earlier when he said this is a landslide coming. If anything, if I had to say up above or below my prediction of 348, I would say it’s going to be above.

Vinay Kolhatkar

Wow, 348-plus. What about you, David? Where’s your prediction at?

David Harriman

I pretty much agree with everything that Ed just said. I looked at the map and I thought, okay, I’ll give the West Coast to Harris because it’s The Land of Fruits and Nuts [laughter]—of course, Hawaii, the Northeast, with the exception of New Hampshire. I even have questions about maybe a couple of those states could come into play, I don’t know. Illinois, just because of Chicago, [it’s] so far left; Colorado, there’s a lot of liberals. But I don’t see anything else going for Harris. So, the rest of the country belongs to Trump, I think.

Vinay Kolhatkar

Roger.

Roger Bissell

I think Trump’s going to take all the red states, all the battleground states, maybe a few more.

It seems like all the data we have is subjective. Polls, what are those? Those are people’s feelings about what they’re going to do. I don’t pay any attention to the betting websites, which is probably why I’m not rich, because I don’t invest in the stock market. I like two websites, RealClearPolitics or RealClearPolling.com and Electoral-Vote.com. You can track that each day and get excited or depressed. The overall impression you get from the two campaigns and the media people who are in favor of them [is]—the Harris team seems to not have any confidence. They’re becoming more erratic and unhinged, and there’s no joy there. The Trump team seems to be having the time of their lives. Now, if they’re whistling in the graveyard, then we’ll all be sad on November 6th. But I think Trump’s going to take all the red states, all the battleground states, maybe a few more. In particular, I’m looking at Virginia, Minnesota, New Hampshire, and New Mexico. I think his popular vote’s going to be around 52%, Harris’s 48%, and his electoral vote is going to be somewhere between 312 and 344. If it shifts like I think it’s going to when this undecided pool decides, I think it’s going to be toward the upper end. I don’t think that qualifies as a landslide, but it’s going to be a big shift that people aren’t seeing just yet, except for astute people here on this panel. If he does get that, it’s going to be a mandate, especially if he gets the popular vote along with it. I think there’s a really good chance he’ll get the popular vote.

If the GOP holds onto the House and flips the Senate, I think that Trump’s going to drag some Senate candidates across the line. Kari Lake was four points behind just a few days ago, and now it looks like she’s pretty close. I think the GOP is going to flip the Senate and maybe hold around 52 to 55 seats. That will set the Dems’ hair on fire. I don’t know about the House.

One more prediction: if Trump wins, and I don’t know if we’ll know it that night or in a day or two, I do expect the Left and the Democrats and their wicked stepchildren in Antifa and so on are going to lose what little of their minds they have left, and they’re going to light up the blue cities. I’m in a red town in a red state, so I’m not quite as worried about that, but I fear for Trump and Vance and their families, also. I hope that it doesn’t come to pass, but I’m apprehensive.

Vinay Kolhatkar

Well, are the Arab Americans going to make Michigan flip to Harris? And, what’s your overall prediction, Ruth?

Ruth Papazian

First, I see no evidence supporting the Democratic talking points that disaffected base voters will come home to the party in the homestretch. If anything, Harris is deflating like a half-baked souffle [laughter]. I think that just yesterday, Real Clear Politics moved New Hampshire into the toss-up category, as just one example.

Now, the momentum is on Trump’s side, and his polling trend lines have been rising since August. Early voting shows that a record number of Republicans are voting early, and a significant percentage of those are infrequent voters. They’re not the party faithful. Those are voters that haven’t been captured before.

As of yesterday, the RealClearPolitics average in the battleground states has Trump with a one-point advantage, 48.5% to 47.5%, over Harris. More importantly, Trump is ahead by about 2.6 points in Arizona, and 2.4 points in Georgia. Harris has a razor-thin margin of 0.2 % in Wisconsin and half a percentage point in Michigan. All these numbers are within margin of error, but Trump seems less likely to lose Arizona and Georgia than Harris is to lose Wisconsin.

If this scenario that I’ve laid out pans out, this might be the election that puts a stake in the heart of grievance-and-identity politics.

So, Harris’s most likely path to 270 electoral college votes would be to carry Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. In Michigan, though, she doesn’t have a strong support among rank-and-file union members and the Muslim community. A lot of imams are starting to break with this pro-Hamas idea that Israel must be defeated, etc. They want peace. I think they are recognizing that Israel can utterly defeat the Gazans and the Palestinians, and that peace is the only way to salvage anything. So, the Muslim community is such that they do listen to their imams as to how to vote. Lately, especially in Michigan, Trump has been getting the support of imams who want peace, and they’ve said, Trump will bring us peace. With the Democrats, it’s nothing but endless war.

Trump has more paths than Harris does. So, I think he has a good chance to win Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Wisconsin. Nevada and Pennsylvania could go either way, but I think Trump has a slight edge in Pennsylvania because of fracking. Even Senator Fetterman has talked about the enthusiasm that he is seeing for Trump. It’s off the charts. Now Trump can pick up another state that nobody was really expecting until recently, and that would be Virginia. I think that might end up in Trump’s column. So, if Trump wins Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina and Virginia, he has 275 electoral college votes. If you throw in Michigan and Wisconsin, you have 300 electoral college votes, and if he gets Pennsylvania, it’s 319. I think he will also win the popular vote and a mandate, which he didn’t really have the last time. So, if this scenario that I’ve laid out pans out, this might be the election that puts a stake in the heart of grievance-and-identity politics. Minorities are getting tired of being perpetual victims, and men are getting tired of being labeled “toxic” and/or “racist.”

Ed Mazlish

Can I just say something about what Ruth said about the imams? I have a slightly different take on that. I don’t think that they’re for peace. I think that they’re reading the tea leaves, and they see that Trump is going to win, and they know Trump is very pro-Israel. I don’t think they want to make peace with Israel. I think they want to make peace with Trump.

Ruth Papazian

Well, I think that’s a factor, too, absolutely.

Vinay Kolhatkar)

Yes, but the eventual outcome of making peace with Trump is to find peace with Israel.

Ruth Papazian

But there’s also another issue about Muslims and their culture. They do not like all this stuff that the Democrats are running on, this gender-affirming stuff in school and transitioning kids secretly, boys being allowed to play in girls’ sports and being allowed into their locker rooms. The Muslims do not like this at all; it’s anathema to them.

Vinay Kolhatkar

Indeed. David…

David Harriman

I just wish that more people recognized the Democratic Party as the party of war.

I just wish that more people recognized the Democratic Party as the party of war. I mean, they love war. They can’t get enough of it. The Middle East is exploding. Iran is coming explicitly into this war, and that would not have happened under Trump. The Ukraine-Russia war, I believe, was basically started by the Democratic Party. They have been arming and prodding Ukraine to bait Russia for the last decade, and so they finally got what they wanted. Recently, they had a huge multi-billion-dollar arms shipment to Taiwan, so that makes me wonder whether they’re doing the same kind of thing between Taiwan and China. I think they would like to see a war break out there. Trump is the opposite. He’s going to be the guy that negotiates peace, and the Democrats are not going to do that.

Vinay Kolhatkar

Okay, on that war issue, I’m going to combine some questions here. Suppose, David, you were the advisor to Trump in his first hundred days. I know what I would do. I would definitely have him stop the Ukraine war, which he claims he can stop while he’s still president-elect and get a peace plan for the Middle East. Internally, I would get a serious plan for handling the 34 trillion-dollar US debt, including defaulting on it, at least announcing that. What would you do, if you were advising Trump of the key things he should do in the first 100 days?

David Harriman

I do believe that he can stop those wars. I think the Russian-Ukraine war didn’t have to happen. At the very beginning of that war, Russia’s demands were pretty simple and pretty reasonable. Trump could have negotiated a peace there. The Democrats didn’t want to. Something similar could have happened in the Middle East. Basically, the Democrats supported Iran, Iran funded Hamas and Hezbollah, and that caused this. Trump would not have allowed that. So, I do think he can stop those wars.

Now, jumpstart energy policy, our production, again. He can do that very quickly. I would say he can try to clean up these agencies. We support all kinds of agencies. I disapprove of the policies of the Food and Drug Administration, the NIH, [and] the Department of Education, which is a travesty. He can go after those agencies. He probably can’t eliminate all of them immediately, but he can put his people in charge and then start to change those policies and maybe slowly eliminate them.

Vinay Kolhatkar

Roger, first 100 days, three or four key proposals…

Roger Bissell

Three or four. Well, suppose, Kamala wins. My suggestion would be that she stay out of the Oval Office and simply not try to earn her salary.

If Trump wins, though, and I hope he does, the list goes on and on. He should immediately decontrol energy exploration and production and negotiate an end to the conflicts in Ukraine and Middle East. I’d [like] to see trade sanctions reimposed on Iran. They were on their knees and broke until Biden and the powers behind him did their dirty work in the last several years. He should propose legislation to secure the border and deport all illegal aliens that wouldn’t normally qualify for admission, and then double the quota and use the increased number to give citizenship to those who’ve been here long enough to qualify, and then just let it go at that. But don’t deport everybody. Get rid of the criminals. Get rid of the terrorists. Hunt them down. Airdrop them over Venezuela or wherever they came from. I’d like to see legislation for an Iron Dome that would work against hypersonic missiles and EMP attacks. Repeal the woke guidelines for the military and increase pay to incentivize fit people to enlist, because I know they have trouble coming up with people who are fit enough. He talked on a podcast about repealing the federal income tax. Somebody said why don’t you get rid of that and replace it with tariffs? (Some people say “Tariffs? That’s just as bad!” Well, I’m sorry, it’s not just as bad, though if we added it on top of the federal income tax, I’d be just as much opposed to it as I would a federal sales tax.) Get rid of several departments. Weren’t there promises a few decades ago about getting rid of the Department of Energy or the Department of Education? Well, let’s do it. Get rid of all foreign aid. Get out of the United Nations. Get rid of all those treaties that give over American sovereignty to bodies like the WHO or the environmental scams, basically.

I’d like to hear all that in his inaugural address and say that we’ve been ruled by fake democracy and it’s just an oligarchy of elites and unelected so-called experts.

I’d like to hear all that in his inaugural address and say that we’ve been ruled by fake democracy and it’s just an oligarchy of elites and unelected so-called experts, that we need to go back to being a republic that’s governed by the people and that abides by the Constitution of the Bill of Rights. Finally, I like to see him bring charges against all the people who interfered with the 2020 election, like the hoaxes and fake prosecutions and covering up information that was vital to making an informed vote. Those 51 security guys who signed that letter, everybody says, oh, you should honor them because they served their country. Well, excuse me. They served their country, and they lied to us, and they threw an election. It’s awfully clear that Biden would not have won if the information about the Hunter Biden laptop had not been suppressed and labeled as “Russian disinformation.” So, there are some of the things I think that should be done.

Vinay Kolhatkar

Ed. First 100 days. You’re his advisor.

Ed Mazlish

Well, it is only a hundred days, Roger. That’s going to be a lot to get done [even] in four years.

Roger Bissell

He can do it.

Ed Mazlish

In a hundred days, I think he should sign executive orders on the day he takes office, repealing restrictions on energy production, restarting all the pipelines. That will be an important thing to do on day one. I think he needs to start reforming the bureaucracy, the federal employees, and make it easier to fire personnel that are carrying out important policies for the president. I think that he needs to purge the generals, the military leadership. He needs to de-wokeify the military. Although I haven’t heard anybody suggest this, my suggestion to him would be to offer to allow anybody who quit the military over the vaccines to come back in at full pay and with reinstatement of full-service time for the time that they were out because it was unfair that they were put out. And I think he should pardon every January 6th defendant. That’s what I would tell him to do in the first 100 days.

Vinay Kolhatkar

Ruth, if you’re in the Oval Office [as] the Chief Advisor, first hundred days…

Ruth Papazian

I guess it goes without saying that Harris’s first hundred days would be just like Biden’s, and she would double down on all their bad policies, so let’s move on from that.

On day one, Trump should void all of Biden’s executive orders.

On day one, Trump should void all of Biden’s executive orders. That would mean withdrawing from the World Health Organization and the Paris Accords a second time and restarting student loan payments and restarting permits for the Keystone Pipeline and other pipelines. He’s going to have a very busy hundred days because I agree with a lot of what everybody else said. And I agree with Ed: he should pardon the J6 political prisoners. He should stop the invasion of the illegal border crossers by reinstating “stay in Mexico,” resume construction of the wall, deport criminal aliens and those with fraudulent asylum claims. He should stop the Ukraine War, and he should reimpose trade sanctions on Iran. That’s a lot for the first 100 days.

Vinay Kolhatkar

Indeed. Well, we’ll move on to one of the last questions of the day. I’ll go with David first. If you could pick three cabinet seats for Trump, who would they be, and what position would they have?

David Harriman

Kennedy is on top of this issue. He deserves that position.

I’m not an expert on this. I’m more of a political philosopher than I am educated in the details, but I will say that Kennedy deserves a position—Health and Human Services, maybe. He has brought up such an important point, that America spends more money on healthcare than any other country, and we are one of the least healthy countries on earth. I think that people need to recognize that what the government has done in regard to supposedly preserving our health is not working at all. I think Kennedy has some very good ideas there. He’s pointed out the horrible side-effects of the COVID so-called vaccines. They aren’t really vaccines. The government has been at this a long time. They told people, don’t eat eggs. It causes high cholesterol. Eat donuts, instead. Kennedy is on top of this issue. He deserves that position. In regard to others, Secretary of State, I’ve heard Rubio’s name floated. I think he would be okay. There’s another name [floated] that I don’t know very well. [Rick] Grennell…

Ed Mazlish

Yes, he was in the first cabinet. I forget what his position was in the first administration, but he was on Trump’s team, first time. [Acting Director of National Intelligence (DNI) under President Donald Trump in 2020, becoming the first openly gay holder of a cabinet level position in the history of the United States].

David Harriman

Then, Attorney General, Kash Patel—he’s a guy who isn’t afraid to say that he would go after some of these people who have committed crimes. I’m not sure why they haven’t been prosecuted. There’s a whole bunch of Democrats that lied under oath. I thought that was illegal. How many times did Fauci lie under oath? And nobody’s even considered charging him with perjury? I think some of that needs to be done.

Vinay Kolhatkar

Interesting. I did read Patel’s Government Gangsters book. Very interesting and a real eye-opener. Roger, who are your three picks?

Roger Bissell

Well, first of all, I think it would not be the best idea to pick any of the people out of the Senate unless you were really sure that a good replacement could be elected in their place. I know there’s some good choices like Marco Rubio, Rand Paul, Ted Cruz, etc., but strategically speaking, you don’t want to undermine the GOP’s hold on the Senate.

I’d like to combine some of the departments, so just go with me on this. This is going to be sort of like Fantasy Football. I’d like to see the Secretary of Defense, Homeland Security, and Veterans Affairs combined, and guess who I’d like to be the head of that? [Vinay: Elon Musk?] Tulsi Gabbard. Regarding Secretary of Health and Human Services, I’m all on board with RFK Jr. Secretary of Agriculture and the Interior, Kristi Noem. Secretary of Transportation and Energy, Elon Musk. Attorney General, Jonathan Turley. I don’t know a whole lot about him, but every time he’s on the tube, he sounds smart and reasonable. And Secretary of Education, how about Dennis Prager?

Vinay Kolhatkar

Okay, Ed, who would be your picks?

Ed Mazlish

Well, I think RFK Jr. is almost a gimme. It’s almost not even fair to suggest him for HHS. He’s practically been promised the position already, from what I hear. Let’s see. I think Kash Patel was a good suggestion, David, for Attorney General. I was thinking [Ken] Paxton from Texas, the Texas Attorney General, or possibly Ron DeSantis could be a good Attorney General. I’d love to see Ron Paul as Secretary of Treasury. I think that would be a fantastic pick, if he were willing to be daring. I forget which one of you said that pulling someone out of the Senate would be a risky move [Roger did], but for Secretary of State, I kind of like Matt Gaetz, not because he’s seasoned, but because he’s a true loyalist to the MAGA agenda.

One thing Trump needs to understand is that personnel is policy, and he needs people that are loyal to him. I hate to say it like that because sometimes I think he overemphasizes loyalty. Other times, especially in his first term, I don’t think he emphasized it enough. I think he needs somebody as Secretary of State who’s loyal. Everybody seems to be in love with Tulsi Gabbard. I’m not as in love with her as everybody else is. I wouldn’t go crazy if she were nominated to be Secretary of Defense, but I can think of better people than she is. Those would be my three.

Vinay Kolhatkar

Okay, and Ruth…

Ruth Papazian

I agree with Ed that Ken Paxton should be Attorney General. He has personal experience with lawfare, and he’s going to make it stop. For Secretary of State, I’d bring back Mike Pompeo. I think he and Trump made a good team. Of course, R.F.K. Jr. for Health and Human Services, chiefly because NIH and FDA would report to him, and he would be in a good position to reform Big Agriculture, Big Food, and Big Pharma. Now, if Trump is not going to get rid of the Department of Education, which I fervently hope he would, I think he could bring back Betsy DeVoss or put Betsy McCaughey in that spot. Both of them are proponents of alternatives to government-run schools.

There is a place for Elon Musk, and that would be the Office of Management and Budget.

And yes, there is a place for Elon Musk, and that would be the Office of Management and Budget. He’s running X, which formerly was Twitter, with 75% fewer employees than before he acquired the company. Now, he can easily downsize the government by about 15% fewer government employees in each agency per year, and he could do this over the course of Trump’s term. Each year, those who survive will fear that they’re next out the door, so they’ll work harder, right? So, by year four, every government agency will be more productive with like 40% [48%] fewer employees, and then a lot of empty office buildings in D.C. can be sold and repurposed for other things, and the proceeds can go to paying down the debt. Ta-da!

Vinay Kolhatkar

Wow, you got a debt plan. That’s a great plan.

Ed Mazlish

I’m not sure I want the government to be any more efficient.

David Harriman

I want to make one point that touches on what Ed said, which is the loyalty issue. I think one of the main problems with Trump’s first term was trusting the wrong people. He needs to pick the right people this time, that are on board with his agenda and aren’t going to stab him in the back the way that he experienced in that first term.

Ruth Papazian

Yes, but you know, he put Chris Christie in charge of staffing his administration, and Chris Christie stuffed it with Deep Staters. But now he has Tulsi Gabbard and Elon Musk and RFK on his transition team, so I think that it’s going to be a whole different ballgame.

David Harriman

Yes, I think so too. I think he learned a lot. Remember, he was a newcomer to the D.C. scene in his first term. He’s not anymore. I think he knows a lot more. I think he’s going to do a much better job picking people.

Now, one thing I want to say about Roger’s point—you mentioned Department of Homeland Security? That’s one of the agencies I wish would go away, because that was a disaster from the beginning. I think their job is to spy on American citizens rather than do anything legitimate, so I would get rid of it.

Vinay Kolhatkar

Very interesting. Your turn, Ed.

Ed Mazlish

Trump came into office thinking that he was the CEO of the government.

I think that Trump came into office thinking that he was the CEO of the government, and as a CEO, if he tells somebody to do something, it gets done. It never occurred to him that that’s not the way the government runs. That’s why I said, during his first 100 days, he needs to reform the bureaucracy and the way federal employees can be fired. He needs to be able to get rid of not just his immediate advisors, but people up and down the chain of the bureaucracy that can just choose to refuse to carry out his orders. I think that Trump came into office thinking that running the government was going to be like running the Trump organization, but it just isn’t. That’s not the way the government works.

Vinay Kolhatkar

There is a swamp, and it’s a global Deep State that has to be cut down to size.

Well, we’re just about out of time, and I want to thank all of you, Ed, Roger, David, and Ruth, for coming here and sharing your insights. I kind of remember the predictions slightly: 348-plus on Ed’s side, Roger was somewhere around there as well [312-344]. David said landslide. Ruth was the only mean forecast south of 300 [275-319], but still a victory for Trump. So, hopefully, if we do meet again on November 11th, we’ll know the result rather than having to wait five, six weeks for it. But thank you all for being here—and to the viewers, thank you for listening and tuning in. That’s how you become savvy. Good night and good luck.

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