Translating deep thinking into common sense
Can Taiwan Prevent a US-China War over Taiwan?
By Walter Block
June 30, 2023
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The world’s eyes are now focused on Russia and Ukraine. And with good reason. These two nations are now involved in a hot war with each other, and there are fears that it might spread even further.
China makes no secret of its desired relationship with Taiwan.
Another possible war, that between the US and China over Taiwan, should also be kept on the forefront of consideration. If it occurs, it will involve the two most powerful nations on the third rock from the sun. China makes no secret of its desired relationship with Taiwan: the former considers the latter as its 16th province, even though it is presently separate from its mother country and has been since 1949.
The US is equally adamant that Taiwan is not a province of any other country, such as China. It opposes any unilateral change in its present status. In order to prevent any aggressive takeover of the former by the latter, American warships continually ply the waters of the South China Sea, which separates these two political entities.
How can a hot war over this issue be prevented? Is there any possible compromise that can preclude such an altercation, a potential danger to the entire human race?
There is.
One or more of these three political entities must officially sign on to the doctrine that all political associations must take place on a voluntary basis.
One or more of these three political entities must officially sign on to the doctrine that all political associations must take place on a voluntary basis. No group of people should be compelled to associate, politically or in any other manner, with others against their will. Neither the US nor China is likely to be the first to take this plunge. This leaves the matter up to Taiwan. It, presumably, has the most to lose in any war to prevent a Chinese takeover, and, thus, the most incentive to do what it can to ward off such an eventuality.
What can Taiwan do?
Are there any folk now living in Taiwan who would wish to politically amalgamate with China? To become part of its 16th province? Fortunately for this compromise scheme, there are.
For example, Lin Te-wang, the leader of the Taiwan People’s Communist Party, admires Chinese President Xi Jinping, and maintains that his version of Chinese socialism would maximize economic development in Taiwan. How many Taiwanese support those or similar views? According to a survey recently held by the non-partisan Taiwanese Public Opinion Foundation, this figure is about 12%.
How, then, to proceed? The Taiwanese government should hold elections of a very different sort than the usual. It should seek a relatively small area, perhaps, even a single town or a village in which a majority of the voters are to be found representative of this 12%. Unless voters who favor joining China are randomly distributed, geographically, a most unlikely occurrence (people with similar views tend to coalesce), such a territory will be found. Then, the Taiwanese government should welcome China into this one small area, which should be declared the 16th province of that mother country (provided that a peace treaty, or some such guarantee against the coerced spread of this entity, could be arranged).
There is precedent for this sort of thing. Not all political entities are geographically connected. For example, Pakistan and Bangladesh were for many years the same country, although geographically separate. If the Palestinians had their way, their country would consist of parts of Jerusalem along with the Gaza Strip. Were Quebec to separate from Canada, what remained of the latter country would be to a great degree disconnected by a large space.
This would be difficult for Taiwan to accomplish. No political entity ever relished giving up a part of itself.
This would be difficult for Taiwan to accomplish. No political entity ever relished giving up a part of itself. Just ask the Spanish re the Basque territory.
If Taiwan took the lead in this regard it would also be tough for Mr. Xi. He would lose face if he attacked what he would then have to regard as a neighboring island nation. For in this way, Taiwan would have already acceded to his wish, well, at least to an aspect of it. A part of Taiwan would be China’s 16th province. Which part? Only that section of the island which gave majority consent to this arrangement.
This would be a bitter pill for the US as well. In order to be logically consistent with this new philosophy, it would have to announce that if Texas or California, or Florida or New York, wished to secede from the US, it could do so without any physical opposition from Washington D.C. Let us say nothing about the war against secession of 1861.
Yes, there would be bitter pills all around. But if this scheme could prevent a war between China and the US over Taiwan, they would be as nothing, compared to the cost of the latter.
My goal, here, is to embarrass all involved politicians out of conducting a war on this matter. Maybe if they lose face for engaging in possibly nuclear fisticuffs, this will reduce the probability of it occurring in the first place.
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Pegs:
China considers Taiwan as its 16th province: https://www.bing.com/search?q=China+considers+Taiwan+as+its+16th+province&form=PRUSEN&ocid=iehp&mkt=en-us&httpsmsn=1&msnews=1&rec_search=1&refig=65df8f7ed325403aac804c678a0a86aa&sp=-1&lq=0&pq=china+considers+taiwan+as+its+16th+province&sc=5-43&qs=n&sk=&cvid=65df8f7ed325403aac804c678a0a86aa&ghsh=0&ghacc=0&ghpl=
US ships ply the waters of the South China Sea:
Which Taiwanese welcome reunification with China?
Lin: Lin Te-wang the leader of the Taiwan People’s Communist Party: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/article-taiwan-china-reunification-support/
12%: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/article-taiwan-china-reunification-support/
What is the US outlook on the political status of Taiwan?
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