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Electoral Math Uncovers the Real Source of Nikki Haley’s “Momentum”

By Roger E. Bissell

February 14, 2024

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Late last month, shortly after Nikki Haley celebrated “victory” in the Iowa caucuses by coming in third behind Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis, she again crowed that she had won, even though she came in about 11% behind Trump, in the “first in the nation,” New Hampshire Republican primary.

70 percent of Haley voters in New Hampshire were not registered Republicans.

Yes, this was an “open” primary, in which Democrats could register Republican or Independent (“Undeclared”), and many Democrats and (presumed) Independents did indeed qualify to vote in the GOP primary. But that’s exactly why I was suspicious of just how significant this “narrow” margin (11%) really was.

So, armed with data from an article in The Hill (“70 percent of Haley voters in New Hampshire were not registered Republicans: CNN exit poll,” January 24) and election returns from the New Hampshire Secretary of State, I decided to crunch the numbers and see what Trump’s winning margin really was—and whether Haley could justifiably claim “victory.” And here’s what I found.

Totals Trump Trump % Haley Haley%
Republicans for Trump or Haley  

~165,621

  

~123,474

  

~70%

  

~42,147

  

~30%
Non-Republicans for Trump or Haley  

~151.261

  

~52,917

  

~30%

  

~98,344

  

~70%
Total 323,417 (all GOP) 176,391 54.5% 140,491 43.4%

 

First, Trump: he got 54.5% of the GOP primary vote, and The Hill says that 70% of his vote was from registered Republicans. This means that only 38% (54.5% times 0.70) of those voting in the primary were registered Republicans voting for Trump. Ooh, looks bad for Trump, right? Well, not so fast. These figures are low because they are almost halved by the non-GOP voters.

Second, Haley: she got 43.4% of the GOP primary vote, and The Hill says that 70% of her voters were NOT registered Republicans—in other words, that only 30% of her voters were registered Republicans. This means that only 13% (43.4% times 0.30) of those voting in the primary were registered Republicans voting for Haley. Ouch.

For those who are uncomfortable with all these percentages floating around, here’s a simpler version: Trump got 176,391 votes, and the GOP 70% share of that is 123,474 votes. Haley got 140,491 votes, and the GOP 30% share of that is 42,147 votes.

There are three interesting, even important, implications from these figures.

First, since barely 51% of those voting for either Trump or Haley were registered Republicans, and about 2% of those voting for other GOP candidates, this means that nearly half of the people (about 47%) voting in the GOP primary were not registered Republicans—but instead Democrat crossovers or Independents. If that’s an argument for the superiority of “open primaries” (shouldn’t a Republican primary measure what the Republican voters want?), then I’ve got a bridge in Brooklyn I’d like to sell you.

If you count ONLY registered Republicans, Trump beat Haley about three-to-one.

Second, it means that if you count ONLY registered Republicans, Trump beat Haley about three-to-one. (In raw GOP votes, he beat her by over 80,000 votes. His number of registered Republican voters was nearly three times hers. If that’s “victory,” then there are several big bridges in San Francisco I’d like to sell you, too.

Third, it means that at least a goodly portion of the major electronic and print media are either suppressing or overlooking this rather obvious gap. More likely the latter, since the media seem intent on giving Haley an appearance of a momentum she does not really have. Either alternative, however, is not reassuring for those of us who hope to get honest, incisive analysis of the significance of election results. If that’s an argument for either the accuracy and integrity or the usefulness of polling, well, pretty soon I’m going to run out of bridges!

On February 7, in the Nevada primary, which awards no delegates, Haley suffered a heavy loss to the “None of the candidates” option.

The next contest did not improve Haley’s prospects, since the smoke and mirrors of crossover votes in an open primary was not an option. On February 7, in the Nevada primary, which awards no delegates, Haley suffered a heavy loss to the “None of the candidates” option, which won 64% of the vote to her 31%. Since Haley chose not to qualify for Nevada’s caucuses (yes, their state has a dual system), Trump instead ran virtually unopposed and walked away with all 26 of the state’s delegates. If you think that is a sign of momentum for Haley, I could sell you the Empire State building, too.

Many of the remaining GOP delegates will be up for grabs in closed primaries or primaries where the winner-take-all threshold is 50%.

As substantial as Haley’s actual loss was in New Hampshire, and as embarrassing as her loss to “None of the candidates” had to have been in Nevada, worse pain is directly ahead. Although Haley will probably win some delegates in the next primary, in her home state of South Carolina, many of the remaining GOP delegates will be up for grabs in closed primaries or primaries where the winner-take-all threshold is 50%, and where the strategy of picking off a proportional number of delegates by appearing to “come close” to Trump by means of crossovers and Democrats will not work.

True, Haley may still be able to win the GOP nomination if Trump is debarred from enough state primary ballots—or she may not, because in such a case, the suspended campaigns of Ron DeSantis and Vivek Ramaswamy would likely be reignited. In the next few days when the Supreme Court decides the Colorado ballot situation, we will likely see whether such a fruit salad upset will be triggered.

 

My thanks to Vinay Kolhatkar for his helpful suggestions on this commentary.

 

 

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